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Yup ;) looks pretty good! will get it uploaded on here when I have the time!

Mike <")))))><
 

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let me look deep, deep into my crystal ball....
remember, guys, this is DFO we're talking about
my guess is that they have about a 20% accuracy rating.
 

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20% thats pretty generous ogo ;D after a few years commercail fishin boats :'( its amazing how many times late comes into play before wrong does. would be interesting to know how exactly how they make thier forecasts, it really doesnt seem to matter about the previous cycles return anymore ???
 

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There's a tough question to answer...how do they come up with their projections....hmmmm, I know the answer to a degree but am too tired to address it at this time...suffice it to say for now that the scientists who provide the data with which managers make their decisions do find it frustrating at times how economic responsibility, politics and ignorance seem to stretch the estimated harvest capacity they project year in and year out. What's worse is often ecologists try to account for the responsibility of fisheries to protect the livelihood of those who depend on the resource, and work that into their projections, and then politics stretches things even further. Too many hands out demanding what's theirs...which is the point. many interest groups depending on the resource do not see the projections for future returns, nor do they recognize that these predictions can vary somewhat, and just because a mild surplus compared to what scientists projected occurs one year or another, it doesn't mean they were wrong, it is what it is, just slight variations, not some excuse to demand more.... An educated estimate at what returns will be and what harvests can be made while still sustaining future stocks is the information that fisheries has to go with. It's more often than not the other variables, like jobs, fishing rights, industry, polution and real time events that alter the actual returns before anyone can react...not an easy job trying to accomodate all of those concerned....
 

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Well Rib.....just like the vast magority of your previous posts.....good, and your right. It would definately be nice to have a better system, like answers to those questions about what happened to the huge returns forecasted out at sea before they go gun ho on them. I do respect what they try to do but also do know that it is frustrating sitting waiting at anchor for a fisheries announcement only to here and think...man they are way out in left field on this one. I know what they try to do isnt the easiest thing but it sad just how much economics come into play. Thats why I moved from the fishing to the brokerage/processing/wholesale end of things......and dont even get me started on American(Alaskan) fish :( lol
Like I say I just wish there was a better way (whatever that may be?) before ya here the reports.....Oh...ooooo we almost wiped out that Fraser tributarys run of fish
 

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Well if any of this is true i'll be missing all of it! I'm gone on vacation for the summer! :mad: Man, the one year i leave with family and the rivers are predicted to over flow with fish! Imagine if i left for good! ;D Oh well u guys have a hay day, i'll be back to catch the end of the run! Good luck, sharp hooks, tight lines!
 

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Locally, when we think of returns, we tend to think of the spring returns, the pinks, and the coho and chum to the rivers that we fish locally with not too much regard as to what the returns might be to the small streams all along the mighty Fraser. Many streams have been rehabilitated, and others have been decimated as of late....Some years, certain areas seem to fair pretty well and others, like the Coho season in the Vedder do quite poorly. The huge returns of Chum salmon to the Allouette, Coquitlam, Stave and other local tribs tell me that this is one tough species. It seems that the survival rate is much higher than other species once they leave the rivers. Perhaps they are just easier to raise in the hatcheries?
The forcast for the Fraser this year should not be too much different than other years, all things considered. The ocean temperatures have remained relatively constant and the winter storm tracks have been unusual, but not totally absurd, and the commercial fleet will likely have minimal opportunity to fish......All in all, with the pink run expected, (they will keep the Sturgeon happy) I would predict a pretty good year.
I think the fishing might be a little more normal in regards to timing, as the snowpack this year atr the present time is far aboave normal in a lot of the drainage basin...thus the Fraser will be a little higher and run off a little longer into the summer. .Time will tell...Ortho 8)
 
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