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Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Subject: FN0558-Salmon: Fraser River Sockeye Update - July 23 - Areas 11 to 29

The Fraser River Panel met today to review stock assessment data on the Fraser
River sockeye runs and to discuss fishery planning. The abundance of Early
Summer-run, Summer-run, and Harrison sockeye migrating through Juan de Fuca
Strait has increased considerably over recent days. The diversion rate of
Fraser sockeye through Johnstone Strait is currently estimated to be less than

The marine migration of Early Stuart sockeye is nearly complete. At the meeting
today, the run size estimate of 90,000 Early Stuart sockeye was unchanged. The
marine migration timing of Early Stuart sockeye this season is currently
estimated to be about two to three days later than forecast.

Recent assessments suggest that the marine migration of Early Summer-run
sockeye may be later than expected. An in-season assessment of how the run size
of Early Summer-run sockeye is tracking relative to their forecast (783,000
fish at the 50% probability level) should be available next week. The estimated
escapement of Early Summer-run sockeye past Mission through July 22 is 39,000

Summer-run sockeye (Chilko, Quesnel, Stellako, and Late Stuart) are forecast to
comprise approximately 25% (2,612,000 fish at the 50% probability level
forecast) of the total Fraser River sockeye run in 2010. An in-season
assessment of the abundance of Summer-run sockeye will likely not be available
until about mid August. The estimated escapement of Summer-run sockeye past
Mission through July 22 is 6,000 fish.

In recent years, Harrison sockeye have exhibited earlier marine timing than
other Late-run sockeye stocks. Recent assessments indicate that Harrison
sockeye are tracking above their forecast level of abundance (195,000 fish at
the 50% probability level) or their marine timing is earlier than expected. An
assessment of their run size will likely not be available until late next week.

Migration conditions for sockeye in the Fraser River are presently
satisfactory. On July 22 the discharge of the Fraser River at Hope was about
3,600 cms, which is approximately 30% below average for this date. The
temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 22 was 17.30 C, which
is half a degree above average for this date. Fraser River water temperatures
at Qualark Creek are projected to exceed 20 0 C by late July due to the low
discharge and warm weather that has been forecasted. Water temperatures
exceeding 20 0 C may adversely affect upstream migration and cause en route
mortality of some Fraser sockeye.

There are no directed recreational and commercial fisheries for Fraser River
sockeye at the present time. Retention of Fraser River sockeye in marine area
First Nations FSC fisheries is permitted as of July 22 as the window closure
restriction to protect Early Stuart sockeye and the early component of the
Early Summer run stocks in these areas has passed. Window closure restrictions
in the Fraser River are still in effect at this time. Refer to the 2010
Southern B.C. Salmon IFMP for details on the timing dates for these closures.

Next Fraser River Panel meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, July 27th.


Barry Rosenberger 250-851-4892

Fisheries and Oceans Canada Operations Center - FN0558
Sent July 23, 2010 at 14:51
Visit us on the Web at http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
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