[Rick Baerg]

Well it looks like we are going to be in for an early freshet this year and it could carry on for a while this season. I was out on the river this past weekend and it was very dirty with lots of trees and debris coming down, made it tough sturgeon fishing. Here are the latest levels at Hope. Lets hope those of us living in Chilliwack and all other communities up and down the Fraser don't have to experince the pain of flooded houses this year!

 

[Tacheeda]

you guys are gonna be screwed!!! :wallbash: the fraser/nechako up her in PG are already close to cresting and the high melt hasnt even started.....and 160% of normal snowpacks.............get them waders ready :drunk:

 

[kaitlyn]

damn, I'm out on Friday for some big dinos.let the freezing level plummet!

 

[Fish Finder]

I'm going to get my potoon ready, and tie it to the front steps.

Finder

 

[Rib]

Hopefully local residents will prepare as much as they can...is there any place someone could volunteer to help in the event of a flood?

 

[Steelie Trav]

I thought that I would just add this tid bit of information in here......

I know that the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley Residents are in fear of possible flooding due to the abnormally high level of snowpack in the mountains this year. I for one don't believe that we are going to see anything bad happen during the freshet.

If you think back to 1999, which was the best ski/snowboard season that BC and other coastal mountains had ever seen, the local mountains (Seymour, Grouse and Cypress) were pushing a 9m snow base. Thats 9 Meters!!!! We didn't flood during that freshet so why is everyone so insistent that we are going to see flooding this year?? Right now Mount Seymour has a snow base of only 3 Meters. Back in 1999, Mount Baker was pushing a 14 Meter snow base, this year only 4.6 m.

So why is there all this worry about flooding when we didn't flood back then?? The snowpacks were far above what we are seeing this year, which actually seems like BC is back on track with its snowfall. The Province did a report on the possible flooding but in their statistics they only went back 5 years for comparison, now if I remember correctly the last 5 years we had the mountains were barely able to even open up for skiing/snowboarding. I would like to see the comparison of what is expected this year to what we had in 1999.

Now I am not saying that people shouldn't be ready for a flood nor that it is impossible for it to happen, but look at the records.

Just my :2cents: on the flood frenzy.

 

[Richard Nixon]

I think we have to look at the snow pack of the whole province not just the local mountians. The snow pack up north is what we should be worried about.......

 

[Steelie Trav]

While that would make sense, Bill, the snowpack on the northern mountains would have been far higher in 1999 in comparison to this year. If the locals got 9m of snow at the base then any other mountain up north would have seen the same large accumulation of snowfall over the winter months. I'll see what I can find on the web regarding those snow levels but I still stand by my opinion on the matter.

 

[Richard Nixon]

Trav, I'm not trying to piss on your parade but really most of the water will be coming down from the north. All I can say thank christ the most of the northshore mountain don't empty in to the Fraser.........

 

[Steelie Trav]

Just came across this....

Current Snowpack
Basin snow water indices range from a low of 94% of normal in the Okanagan to 130-160% of normal along the coast, and in north and central B.C. There are no major river basins in the province that have below normal snowpacks. The South, Mid and North coast, Vancouver Island and the Lower Fraser are 125-145% of normal. These are generally the second highest basin snow indices recorded (with 1999 being the record year). In north-central B.C., the Nechako, Peace, Skeena, Nass and Bulkley are all in the 145-160% of normal range. These are new record highs for these major basins. The Upper Fraser and Mid Fraser are only slightly below their previous high snowpack records, and are currently 130-140% of normal. Much of the rest of the Interior has well above normal snowpacks (110-130%), including the Quesnel Highlands, Columbia and lower Fraser. The North Thompson and South Thompson are 116% and 109%, respectively. The least developed snowpacks in the province are in the Okanagan, Kettle and Kootenay. Snowpacks in these areas range from slightly below to slightly above normal for the date.

The Fraser River watershed snow index is 134% of normal. This is the 4th or 5th largest Fraser River snowpack measured since 1953, when detailed snow measurements began in the Fraser. The current year's snow is similar to that of 1972, and only slightly below the peak snow years of 1999 and 1974 (141% and 142%, respectively).

You can check out http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/rfc/river_forecast/bulletin.htm for more info

It seems as though they are only worried about flooding of the freshet is joined by some of that torrential downpour we have seen since November 2006.

 

[Richard Nixon]

here's the rest of the report



The weather during March was dominated by three warm and wet Pacific storm systems. These brought rain to low elevation (below about 2000 m elevation) and snow to high elevation over large areas, but predominantly in the north and east Columbia, the Peace, Nechako, Skeena and Upper Fraser basins, and along all of the B.C. Coast. These storms systems are continuing into the first week of April.

Outlook
By April 1st, on average, about 95% of the peak snowpack for the year has accumulated. The widespread heavy snow conditions in many regions and across a range of elevations results in the significant potential for widespread and potentially major flooding in May and June, as the snow melts.

Flooding is anticipated in many areas, including the Upper Fraser, Mid Fraser, Nechako, Skeena, Bulkley and Peace River basins. Whether or not major flooding on large rivers occurs will depend primarily on the weather during snowmelt in May and June.

The greatest risk for flooding results from above normal snowpacks combined with well above normal temperatures and/or heavy rainfall during snowmelt in May and June.

Areas under flood risk include much of the B.C. Interior, including all of the Fraser River and its tributaries (from its headwater areas above Prince George through to the Lower Mainland), the Thompson River, the Skeena, Bulkley and Nass rivers, the Nechako River and its major tributaries, and rivers in the Peace River basin.

 

[Rib]

My thoughts are any difficulties that might arise this year will depend very heavily on how the spring shapes up. Right now our spring weather has been fairly cold in comparison to previous years...if it suddenly becomes very warm and consistently so, then there may be some problems, if the change over to warmer weather is more gradual, then nothing might come of it...

ooops, sorry...guess that's what Bill's post is pointing out...

 

[fishortho]

This years statistical data has done more to get $$$ for **** work that was promised by the Province and the Federal government than anything else.....It is a good time for politicians to jump on the bandwagon, score some points in their constitunancy, and get a job done that had been put on hold for a few years, cause there was no threat of flood.......IMO you will likely see one of the highest Fraser River runoffs in a long time, and if this is combined with the big JUNE tides, there will be plenty of flooding in the Valley......Ortho

 

[Richard Nixon]

I think the worse part is they expect the flooding to happen from the headwaters all the down to the coast. That is alot land that could be in trouble

 

[fishin30]

The thing that gets me is the cities along the Fraser are spending millions upgrading the *****. From what I have seen in Silverdale they've added about 1-1.5' of loose gravel on top. If the Fraser breeches the ***** this year it is all going to wash away.

 

[Bonanza]

The snowpack on average is about 130% province wide. If we get a gradual melt without heavy rain we will probably do ok, I think the issue will be the silt build up over the past decade. With out the deep trough to carry away the water all the river can do is get wider. I was at Peg last weekend just to check water levels and was quite suprised at how much the river has come up in the last two weeks. I think we are going to see flooding between Agassiz and Mission if the weather turns against us. Lets hope for the best. The only good I can see coming out of this would be if a log jam (on the Chehalis) redirected water down the hatchery channel! (sorry boys I just cant help myself) :2cents:

 

[abbyfireguy]

I think we should all prepare for the worst and pray for the best....
I'll be bringing my travel trailer off the Matsqui Flats and the boat away from Island 22 if the river gets too high as they are both stored in areas that are major flood plains.....
Lets hope the melt is gradual...

 

[GOFISH]

Biggest concern for Matsqui Prairie is when it makes a new island (from where it says "Fraser River" on the map to just below the existing Mission Bridge) and a new Mission Bridge has to be built. May be lots of new river front property very very soon. :wallbash:

GOFISH 8)

 

[onemorecast]

I was up in the mountains by Wells B.C in the central interior last week and it is still snowing. Brace yourself and start lining up the animals two by two.............

 

[Teppit1]

I agree with ortho, with the big tides (some very high ones in Mid May too) there could be big problems, but none of the planners seem to take tides into account. Here's a Globe article. lets hope the temperatures cooperate...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070428.BCFLOOD28/TPStory/National