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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Some news on sockeye:

The Fraser River Panel met today, June 30 to review assessment data on Fraser
River sockeye salmon and complete the management plan for 2006 Fraser River
sockeye salmon fisheries in Panel Area waters.

The total return of Fraser River sockeye for 2006 is a forecast of 17,357,000.
Early Stuart and Early Summer-run sockeye are forecast to return at abundances
of 84,000 fish, and 1,303,000 fish, respectively. Summer-run sockeye stocks are
forecast to return at an abundance of 7,158,000 fish with most of the
production expected to come from the Quesnel and Chilko stock groups (4,613,000
and 1,689,000 fish, respectively). This is the dominant cycle year for Late
Shuswap sockeye (which includes the Adams River) and Late-run sockeye are
forecast to return at an abundance of 8,812,000 fish. This strong forecast
return is due in part to the low in-river mortality that they experienced and
the large spawning escapement of some Late-run stocks in the brood year. Late
Shuswap sockeye are expected to comprise a high fraction of the Late-run return
at 7,725,000; while Weaver and Birkenhead sockeye are forecast to return at
abundances of 411,000 and 433,000 fish, respectively. Cultus sockeye are
forecast to return at a level of 5,800 fish.

There is high uncertainty in the forecast of the total run size of Fraser
sockeye this season since most (71%) of the production is dependent on the
return of just two stock groups; Quesnel and Late Shuswap. The forecast for
Quesnel sockeye is particularly uncertain, in part because the fry from the
2002 brood year had a much smaller body size than average, which may result in
low marine survival.

The problem of early entry of Late-run sockeye stocks has continued every year
since 1995 and has resulted in significant in-river mortality during this
period. Management actions taken to compensate for this mortality have
substantially reduced harvest opportunities on these Late-run stocks as well as
co-migrating Summer-run sockeye. The 2006 management plan assumes that this
abnormal upstream migratory behavior and associated in-river mortality will
continue. However, based on the relative strength of the forecast Late-run
return in 2006, a flexible approach to Late-run sockeye management wherein
their escapement target will vary with in-season estimates of abundance and
upstream migration behavior. Additional management actions will be taken to
protect Cultus and Sakinaw sockeye.

Fishery openings in 2006 will be adjusted as required based on in-season
estimates of abundance and timing of sockeye, and on the corresponding spawning
escapement needs for each stock group. Conservation concerns for other species
and stocks will be taken into account throughout the 2006 management season.

The present forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye salmon that will
divert through Johnstone Strait in 2006 is 52%. The forecast 50% cumulative
migration timing of Early Stuart and Chilko (and Summer-run sockeye in
aggregate) sockeye through Area 20 are July 3 and August 9, respectively.

During the last two weeks of May, there were six days of record or near-record
high temperatures through portions of the Fraser watershed, which resulted in
snow-melt rates that were well above normal. Several of the snow-water indexes
in the Fraser River watershed to June 1 are now far below average: the upper
Fraser and Nechako were 30% and 61% of normal, respectively, while the middle
and lower Fraser were 53% and 84% of normal, respectively. Snow-water indices
in the north and south Thompson watersheds were 81% and 86% of normal,
respectively. Fraser River discharge levels and water temperatures will be
monitored closely this summer to determine specific management actions that are
required during the in-river migratory period to help achieve spawning
escapement goals for Early Stuart, Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye.
River entry timing for Late-run stocks will also be monitored, and management
adjustments will be adopted as necessary to increase the likelihood that
desired numbers of Late-run fish will reach the spawning grounds.

Sockeye have begun entering the marine and Fraser River assessment areas,
however it is too early to provide an update on the strength of the Early
Stuart sockeye migration. Migration conditions for sockeye entering the Fraser
River are presently satisfactory. The discharge of the Fraser River at Hope on
June 29 was 4,650 cms, which is approximately 30% lower than normal for this
date. The water temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on June 29 was
16.9 degrees C, which is over 2 degrees C warmer than average for this date.

The next scheduled update will be Friday p.m., July 7 following the next Fraser
River Panel meeting.

Paul Ryall, (604)666-0115

· Registered
1,519 Posts
Good to see that nothing is being wiped out! That's alot of fish.I don't know why all thew crying over fish is?


· Registered
1,519 Posts
Ya lost me bud! That statement makes no sense to me.Not trying to stir it up but not sure about it.Can you explain another way?


· Retired staff
6,673 Posts
my understanding of it is this....this is a "forecast" of the returns, as in a prediction, estimate or educated guess of the return.

Sure, some of this projection is based on specific formulas and numbers, but a very significant part of the whole process of trying to predict the run sizes is still dependant on many individual and uncertain variables that could significantly affect the accuracy of the prediction.
It was also mentioned that the quesnel run had a high degree of uncertainty based on the 2002 year smaller average body size of fry, so if this factors in significantly, then that "4 million" number for the quesnel...it could turn out to be 1.5 million, they don't know...

so put that all together and if many, some, or all of the individual assessments for each system are off then the total number for returns could be cut in half or maybe even worse...

Then consider the last stretch of the return home for later runs, (higher temperatures, lower water, etc)...A little bad luck and the in river mortality could rise even higher than predicted...

Also for some of the more endangered runs, any number of events...bad luck/poaching/drought/heat wave/openings for harvest or sport at the wrong time...could happen in such a way that a specific run could be depleted below it's capacity to support a viable population....

This whole birds nest of factors together make managing the fishery a nightmare, and when they say they are "particularily uncertain" about a major contributing stock to the total sockeye count, then that leaves a lot of room for error in their prediction.
I think that's why they're so worried...and it's probably justified, so that's why they're trying so hard to stay on top of things.
Really makes you hope they got it right eh? :D

anyways, hope that clears things up

Discussion Starter · #9 ·
:( The proplem with the DFO is there is too many cheif's and not enought enforment on the river. Seen so many people catching over there limits and had the indians point guns at me and my wife out in the river while they a drifting the beach yelling at us sport fishing guy's and gals, laughing there heads off. They ( the Indains) tell me I have to move my boat, ( I don't) and the next time on of them pulls a shotgun at me, someone is going to get hurt. I have talk to the DFO on this and also the cops. Nothing is being done. No enforment!!! The DFO is running around trying to make everyone happy, First thing is to find out how many fish ARE being pulled out of the river, The poaching that I have seen is upseting to me. I have noticed that the indains are getting whiter every year. I getting tired of people coming to my house wanting to know if I want to buy fish, go figure, tight line my friends.

· Registered
3,378 Posts
Did you ever give any thought to the fact that slamming a single ethnic group for "overfishing/selling door to door fish" is not going to solve the problem?
As evidenced on this board and others, year after year, someone inevidibly blames a group or individuals, for all the problems on the Fraser River. Of course,the fisheries people do not, at times seem to be in the right place at the right time, nor do they have the enforcement powers that we think might solve the problems. I am sure they get just as frustrated as you seem to be. Yes, there are illegal nets on the river, and it has been proven( I think you may agree, with the slightly angled comment on the skin tones of the poachers) they are NOT all set by first nations people.
I am at a loss as to why there cannot be an auxillary fishery officers course much like the local police depts. have. I think the numbers of minor infractions like sport overfishing, lack of proper gear, and licensing infractions take up a lot of time of the current group of fisheries people assigned to the river....Another dozen or so auxillry officers would go a long way to help control all the infractions on ALL the lower mainland waters for the benefit of all sportsfishers.........Ortho 8)

Discussion Starter · #16 ·
:D Yes sir I agree, sure wish that we as a user group can help with this. A few years back there was a awsome article on this about the cheam natives, and how just 4 people took unwords of 100,00 fish to sell for they self's and got busted and didn't even shown up for court and skip town, so go figure. I have seen us tractor trailer rigs loading bins of fish on the banks of the river only knowingly they were going to the U.S. And this is there rights? I pay taxes like everyone else well almost everyone else and the dollars pumped into the local economy is huge. I'm lost for words my friends, looking forward to going fishing this weekend with the wife, tight lines everyone.

· Registered
105 Posts
This Sockeye, FN, Fraser River Panel, Flossing thing sure is troublesome. First Sockeye predicted returns: If the panel didnt release numbers then maybe all the flossers woudnt get their 20' leaders in a knot when they dont get a whack at the 17000000 fish that are supposed to swimming past them. Second , Give the first Nation a set number of days to fish no mater what the return numbers are supposed to be. They are going to fish when they want any way and there is not much we can do about that. Third, Every second thread on this site seems to be about the evils of flossing, but how else do you catch sockeye? You can get them on the fly in still waters but not in fast flowing water. So all the purists wouldnt lower themselves to flossing a few socks right. Ya right! Maybe make fishers record the sockeye catch like chinook, and make it 2 fish per day and a 4 fish season limit. Guys wont like it but you get 2 days sockeye fishing , every body gets fish, and you conserve the run. Plus you only have to go for confession twice for flossing! Just my two socks worth! :roll:

· Registered
606 Posts
Only 4 socks a season???I think not....I want at least 5...That way there will be plenty left for our ever friendly and courteous Cheam brothers who are the true custodians of the salmon stocks in OUR river... :)

Hang on while I extricate my tongue from my cheek before I bite it off... :evil:

· Registered
247 Posts
your post is kind of contradictary, you say give FN 's a set number of days but then say they'll fish when they want anyway which will negate the set day thing unless of course DFO got some bigger balls than they have now and tried some enforcement of the rules. it was good to see them on the water on the first of july1, just hope they keep coming. at least it might keep some of the shadier fishers honest.

Discussion Starter · #20 ·
WOW! that would be a great idea. Having to punch or record your sockeye catch on your tag, just like springers. I would be in all favor of this. You are a wise man my fellow friend. Should pass that along to the usless DFO, Well its off to work I go, Good day my fellow friends, tight lines.
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